After last week’s fourth-quarter meltdown against Virginia Tech, Boston College is back in action on the road against SMU. After covering last week’s 14.5-point spread against the Hokies, BC rolls into Dallas as 20.5 point dogs.
Simply put: I’m not feeling great about this one. I know BC covered against Tech and arguably should have emerged with a win, but I think there are several mitigating factors that suggest SMU is the play here. Firstly, the nor’easter without a doubt benefited BC. Ethan Grunkemeyer never really looked comfortable until the fourth quarter, keeping the Hokies’ offense largely one-dimensional for much of the game. Comparatively, BC’s offense never really wanted to throw the ball anyways, and McKenzie’s legs offered a consistent outlet. The weather essentially played right into BC’s preferred style of play while limiting the Hokies. Even with some rain scheduled for Saturday, there’s no way conditions in Dallas on Saturday—in particular the wind—are as severe as they were in Chestnut Hill last week. That hurts the Eagles.
Advertisement
Secondly, Boston College’s offense looks more one-dimensional than ever right now. The only reason BC was able to move the chains last week was the QB run game. At some point, teams are simply gonna abandon rushing the passer in favor of flooding the backfield with defenders and containing McKenzie in the pocket. They are going to make the Eagles offense win through the air, and the Eagles have not shown they can do that yet.
Thirdly, Coach O’Brien mentioned in his weekly presser that a flu-like illness is ripping through the team. Impact guys like Demetrius Ballard barely played last week, and presumably the roster will be thinned by whatever ailment is plaguing the team. Injuries have also continued to take their toll on the Eagles; Syair Torrence is still not fully healthy, while Bodie Kahoun is still out and Kris Jones aggravated an ankle injury last week.
Between the return of normal weather, BC’s offensive struggles, and the team availability issues, I’m backing the Mustangs—especially when you consider the fact that Kevin Jennings is still somehow on the team.
Pick: SMU -20.5, O 55.5
