The New England Patriots played a comparatively easy schedule in the regular season, there is no denying that. That being said, they are still a battle-tested team that cut its teeth against a handful of high-quality opponents or at least units. The playoffs, however, are a different animal: every team is good, and the Los Angeles Chargers are no exception.
While not statistically outstanding on offense, they are still capable of moving the ball and scoring points. Their defense, meanwhile, has been one of the best in the NFL against both the pass and the run. They finished with an inferior record to the Patriots, but still looked like one of the better teams in the AFC at times.
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How do the Chargers stack up against the Patriots, though? Let’s take a look at our head-to-head comparison.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Chargers pass defense: Led by Pro Bowlers Derwin James and Tuli Tuipulotu, the Chargers pass defense has been a top unit in the NFL this season. Fusing a relentless pass rush not relying on. the blitz with a zone-heavy coverage in the backend, the unit is ranked third in interceptions (19), seventh in EPA per dropback (-0.051) and ninth in net yards per attempt (5.6). That said, it will be going up against an MVP-caliber quarterback and a passing offense that has been no less impressive. The matchup will be of the highest quality, and arguably the toughest so far for both units. We are giving New England a minor edge, though, because Drake Maye has been one of the best QBs in football against zone this year, completing 74.9% of his passes and averaging 9.2 yards per pass, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Chargers pass offense: Justin Herbert is one of the top quarterbacks in football, and a player capable of making life hard for any pass defense in the NFL. So, why are we seeing this as an advantageous matchup for New England? Mainly because of Los Angeles’ offensive line. The unit has struggled mightily to find stability and quality play this season, which has impacted Herbert’s effectiveness and limited the offense as a whole. Granted, New England’s pass rush has been anything but inspiring, pressuring opposing passers on just 20.3% of dropbacks, but the team has an ace in the hole: the disruptive interior line duo of Christian Barmore and Milton Williams could become a major problem for Los Angeles. If they play to their capabilities against a suspect O-line, Herbert and company might be in for a long day. | Edge: Patriots
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Running game
Patriots rushing offense vs. Chargers run defense: Since turning the calendar to December, no rushing attack in the NFL has been as productive as the Patriots’: led by Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson, the group is producing 0.179 expected points per run play and averaging over 180 yards per game. However, this matchup is a case of the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object. The Chargers defense, after all, is ranked fourth in the NFL in EPA per run over that same span (-0.192). Like the previous two matchups outlined above, this one projects as a highly-competitive battle that could easily go either way. We are confident in the Patriots at full strength, but two starting offensive linemen missing practice on Wednesday with an illness is certainly not ideal and slightly tips the scales in Los Angeles’ favor for now. | Edge: Chargers
Patriots run defense vs. Chargers rushing offense: New England’s run defense should benefit from Milton Williams shaking off the rust and Robert Spillane returning after a four-week absence. Question marks still remain when it comes to the unit’s ability to slow down the opposition, particularly if Khyiris Tonga is unable to go and Spillane not at a 100% yet. Of course, the Patriots are not the only ones dealing with injury woes; Chargers starting RB Omarion Hampton was missing from practice Wednesday with an ankle injury. Even if he is cleared by Sunday night, the offensive line still hangs over his and his team’s collective head as a factor of uncertainty. Case in point: L.A. is ranked 26th in run game EPA (-0.145) since the start of December. | Edge: Patriots
Special teams
The only special teams Pro Bowler on either side of this matchup is Los Angeles kicker Cameron Dicker, who made 92.7% of his field goals and 97.1% of his extra points during the regular season — numbers that are clearly better than his counterpart Andy Borregales’ 84.4% and 96.4%, respectively. However, place kicking is only one piece of the puzzle in the game’s third phase. New England, after all, holds an edge virtually everywhere else, with one matchup particularly intriguing from a Patriots perspective: Marcus Jones, who is averaging 17.2 yards per punt return (2nd) and has two touchdowns to his name this season (t-1st), versus a coverage unit surrendering 14.5 yards per runback (30th). | Edge: Patriots
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Coaching
Jim Harbaugh and his coordinators, OC Greg Roman, DC Jesse Minter and STC Ryan Ficken, headline a coaching staff that brings plenty of experience to the table — something that cannot fully be said about the Patriots. While Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels have seen plenty of football through their careers, defensive play caller Zak Kuhr in particular is a relative wild card. To his credit, he has done a fine job especially considering the circumstances of coordinator Terrell William’ cancer diagnosis, but he will have to be on his A-game against the Chargers. | Edge: Chargers
Verdict
As can be seen by all six of our categories, the Patriots’ first playoff game in four years projects to be a highly-contested affair. Both teams are dealing with some personnel questions, both teams have played winning football so far this year, both teams have talented players in all three phases capable of individually making a difference. Ultimately, we believe New England should be in a position to win, especially in front of what will be an electric home crowd at Gillette Stadium, but the challenge is a tougher one than what the team has gotten used to in the regular season.
