College football Power Four title picks and top Group of Five contender
Before the Snap looks at who’s poised to win the Power Four leagues and which Group of Five program could emerge as the top contender.
College football’s regular season is over.
But talking season? Talking season is hitting a fever pitch following the completion of conference championship weekend.
The biggest question facing the College Football Playoff selection committee on Sunday, Dec. 7 is what to do with No. 10 Alabama (No. 9 CFP), No. 9 Notre Dame (No. 10 CFP) and No. 13 Miami (No. 12 in CFP). The Crimson Tide were manhandled 28-7 in the SEC Championship game, raising questions as to whether Kalen DeBoer’s squad is deserving of making the CFP or being ousted by, presumably, the 12th-ranked Hurricanes.
The question facing the committee is whether to punish Alabama for the way it lost the SEC title game, or to remove that particular data point because the Crimson Tide were playing in their conference championship while Notre Dame and Miami were idle. The committee has never placed a three-loss team in as an at-large, but also has set the precedent of teams losing their championship games and still making the CFP (Georgia in 2021, TCU in 2022 and SMU in 2024).
Elsewhere, No. 2 Indiana ousted No. 1 Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship to earn the top seed of the CFP; No. 21 Tulane (No. 20 in CFP) earned its spot as the American champion; and No. 19 James Madison (No. 25 in CFP) did its part by winning the Sun Belt Championship. With a Duke win, will JMU make the CFP?
No. 6 Texas Tech (No. 4 CFP) demolished No. 11 BYU (No. 11 in CFP) 34-7 in the Big 12 Championship, removing at least one team from the traffic jam on the CFP bubble.
With no more games left to impact the College Football Playoff, here are USA TODAY Sports’ predictions for the final 12-team CFP bracket:
CFP rankings, bracket predictions after Week 15
* Denotes one of five highest-ranked conference champions
Craig Meyer, USA TODAY Network
- Indiana *
- Georgia *
- Ohio State
- Texas Tech *
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
- Alabama
- Tulane *
- James Madison *
Indiana earns the top overall seed for the playoff with its 13-10 win over Ohio State in the Big Ten title game while the losing Buckeyes fall only two spots, to No. 3, giving them a coveted first-round bye. Georgia and Texas Tech — champions of the SEC and Big 12, respectively — round out the top four.
It’s at the bottom of the top 12, though, where things get a little more complicated.
Duke’s win in the ACC championship game keeps the ACC out of the playoff, with James Madison earning the automatic berth reserved for the fifth-highest-rated conference champion. Alabama was beaten soundly by Georgia, a loss that would give the committee ample justification to leave the Crimson Tide out of the playoff, but it’s difficult to envision them getting excluded after the committee made it a point to move them ahead of Notre Dame at No. 9 last week. Whether fair or unfair — but it’s mostly unfair — I have my doubts that an SEC team with Alabama’s cachet will be on the wrong side of the playoff bubble in consecutive years.
Alabama will get bumped one spot, which will wedge it between Notre Dame and Miami, giving the committee breathing room to negate the Hurricanes’ Week 1 win over the Fighting Irish since the two teams wouldn’t be back-to-back in the rankings. And with that, Notre Dame ends up in the field after starting the season 0-2.
Austin Curtright, USA TODAY Network
- Indiana *
- Georgia *
- Ohio State
- Texas Tech *
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
- Alabama
- Tulane *
- JMU *
The year is 2025 and Indiana is going to be the No. 1 seed of the College Football Playoff after taking down No. 1 Ohio State. What second-year coach Curt Cignetti has done with the Hoosiers is truly one of the greatest turnarounds in college football history. Georgia, meanwhile, locks up the No. 2 spot in the rankings after dominating Alabama 28-7 in the SEC Championship.
There’s lots of talk of Miami potentially jumping Alabama in the 12-team bracket, but I project the Crimson Tide to stay in the CFP, falling to No. 10 behind Notre Dame. Then there’s James Madison, who against all odds sneaks into the field at No. 12, leaving the ACC out of the CFP altogether.
Ehsan Kassim, USA TODAY Network
- Indiana *
- Ohio State
- Georgia *
- Texas Tech *
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- Notre Dame
- Oklahoma
- Alabama
- Tulane *
- James Madison *
Indiana pulled off the upset in the Big Ten championship and finished the season as the only undefeated team and the No. 1 overall seed. Despite the loss, OSU still gets a bye and the No. 2 seed. Georgia’s win keeps them to No. 3, while Texas Tech also gets a bye. James Madison sneaks in with Duke’s win over Virginia.
Despite the win over Notre Dame, Miami and the ACC are denied any spot in the playoff.
Jordan Mendoza, USA TODAY
- Indiana *
- Georgia *
- Ohio State
- Texas Tech *
- Oregon
- Mississippi
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
- Miami
- Tulane *
- James Madison *
Georgia’s dominance in the SEC championship game is good enough to get the Bulldogs the No. 2 seed to avoid two Big Ten teams at the top. Nos. 4-8 are pretty set, and thanks to Duke winning the ACC title, James Madison makes it two Group of Five teams in.
It comes down to Alabama, Miami and Notre Dame for two spots, and ultimately, the Hurricanes and Fighting Irish get in. It’s unfortunate because teams shouldn’t get punished for playing an extra game, but the Crimson Tide really hurt their cause. It may ultimately lead to the end of conference title week. There’s going to be controversy no matter how this unfolds.
John Leuzzi, USA TODAY Network
- Indiana *
- Ohio State
- Georgia *
- Texas Tech *
- Oregon
- Mississippi
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
- Alabama
- Tulane *
- James Madison *
The biggest question that remains on the 12-team field following Saturday’s slate of Conference Championship games is whether Alabama remains in the field following an uninspiring performance in the SEC Championship game or whether the CFP committee adds Miami into the field to avoid the head-to-head conversation with Notre Dame because of BYU’s loss.
For now, largely based on the fact that the committee moved Alabama ahead of Notre Dame last week, I think Crimson Tide remain in the field as the first at-large three-loss team (but swapping back with the Fighting Irish). This would avoid the committee having to explain why the head-to-head tiebreaker wasn’t used with the Fighting Irish and Hurricanes. There’s also something to say for Alabama’s resume, which features four consecutive wins against top-25-ranked opponents from the end of September through mid-October.
When do new CFP rankings come out?
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 7
- Time: Noon ET
The final CFP top 25 rankings and 12-team bracket will be unveiled at noon ET on Sunday, Dec. 7.
Craig Meyer, Ehsan Kassim, Austin Curtright, Jordan Mendoza and John Leuzzi of the USA TODAY Network contributed to this story.
