The New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars were two of the top three teams in the AFC last season, but both have dropped one of their first two games in 2026.
Drake Maye and the Patriots have really struggled on offense, ranking in the bottom 10 in the league in EPA/Play while Maye has thrown four interceptions. Despite that, the New England defense led the way in a Week 2 win over Pittsburgh at home.
Now, the Pats hit the road to take on Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, who blew a lead against Denver in a loss on Sunday. The Jaguars are favored in this matchup, and they’ll look to find their offensive form from Week 1 when they dismantled the Deshaun Watson-led Browns.
Oddsmakers are expecting a close game, setting this spread at a field goal ahead of Sunday’s kickoff.
All season long, the SI Betting team is sharing score predictions for just about every NFL matchup. Not only will we predict every score for Sunday’s games, but we have individual score predictions to help bettors make their spread, moneyline and total picks.
By analyzing the latest odds and movement and using the picks from our team, we’re hoping to guide bettors in the right direction for their NFL plays, and potentially get a score exactly correct in the process.
Now, let’s dive into the score prediction for this battle between two of the best teams in the AFC from last season.
Patriots vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread and Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread
- Patriots +3 (-118)
- Jaguars -3 (-102)
Moneyline
- Patriots: +130
- Jaguars: -155
Total
- 45.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
The total has actually jumped up a point from 44.5 to 45.5, and the Jaguars have moved from 2.5-point favorites to 3-point favorites in this matchup. New England is 1-0-1 against the spread this season after beating Pittsburgh on Sunday.
Patriots vs. Jaguars Score Prediction
This matchup just so happens to feature one of my favorite plays of the week, which I broke down in the Patriots vs. Jaguars betting preview here.
Maye and the New England Patriots have gotten off to a slow start offensively this season, and loss of A.J. Brown (ankle) is tough to handle, yet I still think there are some encouraging signs from the Patriots as a team through two weeks.
The Patriots’ defense has been elite, ranking No. 2 in the league in EPA/Play and No. 4 in yards per play allowed, holding Pittsburgh to just three points in Week 2.
In fact, New England has allowed just 16 points across two games, and I think a small offensive step forward could even lead the Patriots to an upset win. Still, I don’t mind getting a full three points in this matchup.
This line opened with the Patriots as 2.5-point underdogs, yet it moved in Jacksonville’s favor early in the week. I don’t agree with that after the Jags struggled against a quality Denver team in Week 2, and I don’t want to put too much stock into a Week 1 shellacking of the Browns at home.
Maye and the Patriots were one of the best teams in the league in EPA/Play on offense last season, so I’m not buying the first two weeks of 2026 as the new norm. I think the Patriots can at least finish as a middling offense in 2026, and the return of TreVeyon Henderson in Week 2 certainly boosted their run game.
This could be a bounce-back spot for the Patriots, as they can take advantage of a Jaguars defense that is allowing 6.1 yards per play (29th in the NFL) so far this season.
Final Score Prediction: Patriots 24, Jags 20
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.
