Sometime after they trotted into the locker room with a halftime lead Sunday, the Patriots decided to ditch their run game.
They had averaged 3.3 yards per carry against the Raiders, who stuffed two third-and-1 runs inside the final five minutes of the half. It was time, they figured, to put the game in Drake Maye’s hands.
Bombs away.
The Raiders were already there. They had logged a 74% pass rate in the first half, when they fizzled fast under the Foxboro rain. After Geno Smith hit a touchdown pass on his opening drive, he took three sacks, threw a pick and went scoreless through the rest of the half.
But later, Las Vegas enjoyed the sweet luxury of running the ball with a lead, and spent most of the fourth quarter killing clock. What happened between the Raiders getting clobbered and hitting cruise control is what allows middling teams like them — and the Patriots — to ascend mediocrity.
Better coaching, sharper quarterback play and fewer mistakes.
The Patriots believed a blitz-heavy plan would unsettle Smith after he’d tossed the second-most interceptions in the NFL last year. For a time, they were right. The Pats allowed 10 total yards on eight first-half blitzes. But after halftime, the pressure flipped.
The Raiders’ adjustments yielded several explosive plays and a 77% offensive success rate against extra rushers. Smith’s 36-yard prayer that converted third-and-20 in the final minutes may have been the dagger Sunday, but his completions of 30, 38 and 28 yards on prior scoring drives pulled Las Vegas into the lead.
Meanwhile, Maye slipped under the waves of Raiders pressure that grew higher as the game wore on. Under duress, he went 4-of-8 for 41 yards and an interception around three sacks in the second half. Yet the Patriots’ problems ran deeper than Maye.
Their fundamentals cracked. From nine penalties (flagged by a ticky-tack officiating crew) to 11 missed tackles and missed stunts along their offensive line, Mike Vrabel had plenty of bad tape to pick through Monday. All fixable problems, but problems nonetheless.
How fast the Patriots can patch those cracks will determine whether they win the next toss-up games on their schedule: at Miami, versus Pittsburgh and home against Carolina. There’s time — plenty of time — but the regular-season clock is now officially ticking.
Here’s what else the film revealed about the Patriots’ loss:
Drake Maye
30-of-46 for 287 yards, TD, INT
Accurate throw percentage: 72.1%
Under pressure: 4-of-11 for 41 yards, INT, 4 sacks
Against the blitz: 8-of-14 for 70 yards, TD
Behind the line: 10-of-10 for 32 yards
0-9 yards downfield: 8-of-13 for 58 yards, TD
10-19 yards downfield: 10-of-15 for 153 yards, INT
20+ yards downfield: 2-of-5 for 46 yards
Notes: Setting aside his shaky play under pressure — as big a problem as the Patriots had in the second half — Maye must protect himself better than he did Sunday.
He took far too many out-of-pocket risks, scrambling for the rewards of one yard, none and even a short loss. Throw the ball away, and live to see another day.
In all, Maye took 11 QB hits, including the four sacks. His pocket movement was responsible for three pressures, a sack, an additional hit and one hurry. It’s too early to worry deeply about Maye’s habits under pressure, but playing a third straight season behind a porous offensive line (including his last collegiate season) is undeniably hazardous to a young quarterback’s development, let alone health. Something to monitor.
Mike Vrabel, Patriots to ‘evaluate’ Drake Maye’s responsibilites
On to the good.
Maye thrived on intermediate throws, which is exactly where Josh McDaniels’ offense will guide him, particularly on play-action concepts. He also ripped several sideline sideline completions to Kayshon Boutte, and kept Boutte from trouble with a back-shoulder placement on a deep in-cut in the first half. Against the blitz, Maye made checks and found enough answers, including his 2-yard touchdown to DeMario Douglas.
In the second half, Maye’s lone first-down completion versus the blitz was a slant throw to Stefon Diggs, with whom he should develop more chemistry that could offset some protection issues. Hitting Diggs for six completions on seven targets is a great sign for a quarterback and receiver who haven’t spent much time together. And if McDaniels continues to lean into more option runs, which Maye ran flawlessly Sunday, the kid will have a shot to begin realizing all of his immense talents in this offense.
Critical areas
Turnovers: Patriots 1, Raiders 1
Explosive play rate: Patriots 5.9%, Raiders 16.2%
Success rate: Patriots 41%, Raiders 43%
Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 1-3, Raiders 1-1
Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 37.5%, Raiders 33%
Offense
Game plan
Personnel breakdown: 69% of snaps in 11 personnel, 22% snaps in 12 personnel, 1.5% snaps in 21 personnel, 6% snaps in 21H personnel, 1.5% snaps in 22 personnel.***
Personnel production: 34% success rate in 11 personnel, 54% success rate in 12 personnel, 0% success rate in 21 personnel, 50% success rate in 21H personnel, 100% success rate in 22 personnel.
First-down down play-calls: 64% pass (38% success rate), 36% run (30% success rate)
Play-action rate: 20.8%
The Patriots generated most of their explosive plays on intermediate in-cuts and outside throws to Kayshon Boutte, though neither were always available. Their steadiest success came from passing out of two-tight end personnel, thanks to play-action completions of 10, 22 and 10 yards. McDaniels could bump his play-action rate some, though a mark over 20% was a welcome sight after the Pats ranked close to dead last in play-action a year ago.
McDaniels never found a rhythm with his screen game (six screens called in all) or the run game. He even aligned Mack Hollins, a strong, 6-foot-4 receiver, as a pseudo fullback on a couple rushing snaps to try and loosen Las Vegas’ defense. No dice.
Once Las Vegas found it could handle the Patriots’ run game, it backed into two-high shells that eliminated some of Maye’s preferred throwing lanes, and Maxx Crosby became free to tear through McDaniels’ protection plan of quick passes, movement throws, running back chips and tight ends blocking.
The biggest gripe here is TreVeyon Henderson’s usage. Henderson’s speed is known well enough now he should carry some gravity pre-snap to be used as a decoy. Simple swing passes and screens weren’t enough. Rhamondre Stevenson also out-snapped the rookie 46 to 25 on offense, a ratio that ought to even out considering Henderson was the only one who broke a tackle between them.
Final notes: nice touch on the tush push formation that set up a surprise pitch left to Henderson for 14 yards on third-and-1. And McDaniels’ first 13 play-calls from 11 personnel (three wide receivers, one running back, one tight end) were all passes. All of them.
Player stats
Broken tackles: WR DeMario Douglas 2, WR Kayshon Boutte, RB TreVeyon Henderson
Pressure allowed: RT Morgan Moses 4 (3 QB hits, hurry), LG Jared Wilson 4 (2 QB hits, 2 hurries), QB Drake Maye 3 (sack, QB hit, hurry), RG Mike Onwenu 2 (QB hit, hurry), LT Will Campbell (sack), Team 3 (2 sacks, QB hit)
Run stuffs allowed: C Garrett Bradbury, Moses, Team 2
Drops: Douglas
Notes
- Why couldn’t the Patriots run the ball? They suffered myriad smaller mistakes, but the simplest answer is their offensive line didn’t move people. Too often, Will Campbell and Co. were stood up at the line of scrimmage, which made the offense one-dimensional.
- Unable to find regular running lanes, Rhamondre Stevenson finished with 15 total yards and 17 yards after contact, per Pro Football Focus. Antonio Gibson also had more yards after contact than he did total.
- As for Campbell, his late strip sack and two false start penalties — including a killer flag on fourth-and-5 — overshadowed what was otherwise a decent day in pass protection. Campbell’s strength, mobility and recovery skills were all over this tape.
- Campbell, of course, can’t continue to allow late sacks or take those penalties. But it’s worth noting that rookie left guard Jared Wilson struggled more than he did. Wilson’s mistakes simply weren’t as obvious.
- Ex-Patriots defensive tackle Adam Butler had Wilson in a blender, recording multiple pressures and stonewalling him in the run game. Too often Wilson, center Garrett Bradbury and right guard Mike Onwenu also failed to reach the second level to block quick-triggering linebacker.
- Bradbury had the best game up front, and logged the only clean sheet in pass protection. Next up were Onwenu, Campbell, Morgan Moses and then Wilson.
- Moses, predictably, had his hands full with Maxx Crosby and allowed several pressures. The Patriots have to hope for better performances from the 34-year-old coming up. This week’s trip to Miami will be telling against a talented Dolphins front seven.
- A couple missed blocks from the tight ends could have sprung longer runs. As a pass-catcher, Hunter Henry continues to be a weapon up the seam and had the Patriots’ longest gain, a 27-yard catch on a wheel route.
- Out wide, Kayshon Boutte has earned the starting ‘X’ receiver role. He saw the most playing time of any wideout (82% of all offensive snaps). DeMario Douglas followed him at 63%, then Mack Hollins (56%) and Stefon Diggs (41%).
- Diggs’ playing time should increase soon. He started the game in the slot, then Douglas replaced him on the Patriots’ initial third down. Maye’s trust in him is evident.
- Third-round rookie Kyle Williams played just seven snaps total, ahead of only Gibson and tight end/fullback Jack Westover.
Defense
Game plan
Personnel breakdown: 52% three-corner nickel package, 24% base defense, 11% three-safety nickel, 8% dime, 5% dollar.****
Coverage breakdown: 59% zone, 41% man
Blitz rate: 42.5%
Blitz efficacy: 53% offensive success rate and 9.4 yards per play allowed
Live by the blitz, die by the blitz.
The Pats’ 42.5% blitz rate on dropbacks was incredibly high, particularly for a defensive staff that posted one of the lower blitz rates in the league with Tennessee from 2018-23.
Defensive coordinator Terrell Williams got a little too cute on the opening series, dropping Milton Williams and Christian Barmore into coverage on third-and-11, when Geno Smith ripped a 26-yard touchdown. On that same play, safety Jaylinn Hawkins trailed jitterbug receiver Tre Tucker in coverage, a mismatch born from questionable scheme.
After that, though, Williams got consistent pressure with five-man fronts and aggressive zone blitzes that occasionally had just five defenders in coverage — two underneath and three deep. That plan lasted until the early third quarter, when Las Vegas found success blocking it up with bigger offensive personnel. That put the Pats in a different pickle, even after star tight end Brock Bowers — whom the Pats occasionally double-teamed — left with a knee injury.
In the fourth quarter, Las Vegas ran successfully at their three-cornerback nickel package. Then, when the Patriots bulked up and played base personnel (four defensive backs), Smith threw it over their heads off play-action. He hit a 28-yard pass to Tucker and a fourth-and-1 conversion on the field goal drive that made it 20-10 Vegas, and gave the Raiders firm control of the game.
Player stats
Pressure: OLB Harold Landry 5 (2.5 sacks, QB hit, hurry), DL Milton Williams 3 (2 QB hits, hurry), S Jaylinn Hawkins (sack), OLB K’Lavon Chaisson (0.5 sack), LB Robert Spillane (hurry), DL Joshua Farmer (hurry), Team (hurry)
Run stuffs: DL Christian Barmore, DL Khyris Tonga, Hawkins, Team 5
Pass deflections: CB Carlton Davis 2, CB Marcus Jones, CB Alex Austin, Hawkins
Missed tackles: Spillane 3, LB Christian Elliss 3, Hawkins 2, S Craig Woodson, Jones, Chaisson
Notes
- Holy cow did Harold Landry play like a man possessed on the edge. He earned five pressures on stunts, straight rushes and an effort play to close a crowded pocket for a sack.
- If Landry continues to rush like this, the Patriots ought to trust their four-man rush more than we saw Sunday. He should see plenty of single blocks, with Christian Barmore and Milton Williams drawing extra attention on the inside.
- As for Barmore and Williams, the latter had the better pass-rushing day, and Barmore showed up more consistently against the run. I’d expect that to even out, as the coaching staff deploys them all across the defensive line to leverage their talents and free up favorable matchups for other rushers.
- In his Patriots debut, outside linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson was fairly quiet aside from his half-sack. He took snaps ahead of Keion White, who did little with his 29 snaps outside of setting a couple sturdy edges against the run.
- Rough outing for inside linebackers Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss. Both got victimized on play-action and missed too many tackles. Overall, the Pats’ tackling was a real problem.
- As the lynchpin of this unit who played 100% of the defensive snaps, Spillane must be better. But at least he’s not at risk of losing his job.
- If Elliss plays like this more often, veteran backup Jack Gibbens is waiting in the wings. Elliss’s play diagnosis is still just a second too slow too often.
- Fourth-round rookie safety Craig Woodson, on the other hand, looks like a real find. He flew up in run support and competed well in man-to-man coverage. Woodson offered a steady presence next to Jaylinn Hawkins, whose roller-coaster day featured one allowed touchdown, two missed tackles, a sack, one run stuff and interception.
- The Patriots did not need Christian Gonzalez to beat the Raiders, mostly because of the pressure they generated and Alex Austin’s solid play in his place (one pass breakup). However, Gonzalez would have certainly slowed Brock Bowers and perhaps even kept him from a 100-yard day before the fourth quarter.
- The sooner Gonzalez returns, the sooner the Patriots can test their potential as a top-10 defense. Without him, no shot.
*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards.
**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it produces positive EPA (Expected Points Added).
***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 21 personnel = two backs, one tight end; 21H = two halfbacks, one tight ends; 22 personnel = two backs, two tight ends.
****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel = five; dime = six, dollar = seven.
