Sports event contracts remain the lifeblood of prediction markets—a dynamic likely to intensify as the U.S. football season ramps up.
The S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan Q3 2026 Consumer Insights survey found that while just 10% of respondents traded on a yes/no exchange over the past year, 70% of active prediction market users traded sports event contracts.
That figure underlines a trend that may make traditional sportsbook operators uneasy: high-visibility prediction market advertising is hitting its mark. Still, the industry has ground to cover in building broader awareness.
“Due at least in part to widespread advertising during live sporting events, 42% indicated they were aware of prediction market operators but had not used them,” notes S&P Global. “The largest percentage, 44%, reported they had never heard of the prediction market.”
The survey indicates U.S. traders are most familiar with a core group of platforms led by high-profile operators like DraftKings and Polymarket.
Sports Still the Heavy Hitter
Whether it’s by way of timed cryptocurrency markets, financial derivatives, mention markets and political event contracts, among others, prediction market companies are attempting to lean on growth outlets beyond sports. However, weaning traders off sports event contracts is easier said than done.
“Seventy percent said they had traded on sports-related outcomes, compared to 36% trading on economic or financial outcomes and 33% trading on political outcomes,” adds S&P. “Approximately one-quarter (26%) indicated they had traded on news and entertainment outcomes, and 11% cited trading on other outcomes, such as word mentions, weather or cryptocurrency.”
Overall, just 2% of respondents traded exclusively in non-sports contracts over the past year. Meanwhile, 21% of all survey respondents either placed a traditional sports wager or traded sports derivatives during the same period.
A Familiar Constituency
Much like traditional sportsbooks, the prediction market user base skews heavily young and male—a demographic profile that continues to draw scrutiny from regulatory critics.
The S&P survey indicates that 61% of prediction market traders are under the age of 35 while just 13% are 55 years old or older and the bulk of those market participants are men.
“Two-thirds (66%) of prediction market traders were men. Prediction market traders tended to be spread across all states, rather than skewed toward states where sportsbook gambling is prohibited,” concludes the research firm. “The survey data shows a correlation with crypto, as 55% of prediction market traders reported buying and/or selling cryptocurrency over the past year.”
The survey underscores that while prediction markets continue to expand into finance and politics, sports contracts remain the core engine driving everyday volume and consumer adoption.
