Who Will the Bruins Play in Round One of the Stanley Cup Playoffs?

The Boston Bruins are going to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The odds were against them, with a +400 shot (20%) on FanDuel, a +450 (18.18%) shot on DraftKings. Stat models projected the Bruins to finish 14th in the conference, and MoneyPuck gave them a 14.5% chance of playing in mid-late April.

It stems further than that. Maybe a new head coach and some smaller free agency moves will do that (also see: Pittsburgh). Nobody was deeming the Bruins as winners on July 1.

That narrative started to change when the season started, though. Marco Sturm led the team to a three-game win streak, then their first six-game losing streak. They rose out of that with wins in eight of nine. They went through a series of streaks, good and bad, but even at the New Year, the Bruins were on the outside looking in.

A strong January (11-2-1) pushed the Bruins above the line, then a strong March (10-3-3) kept them well in the race.

Slowly, their odds increased.

They finally clinched a spot Saturday and will go back to the Stanley Cup Playoffs after a one-year absence.

The Bruins are locked into a wild card spot; the top three spots in the Atlantic are out of reach. They will play one of the division winners, and if they win on Tuesday, they can lock in the top wild card spot and play the second-ranked division winner.

So, who can they play in round one?

(Matchup odds via HockeyStats.com)

BUFFALO SABRES – 65%

This season: 3-1-0

Oct. 11 (BOS 3-1) | Oct. 30 (BOS 4-3, OT) | Dec. 27 (BUF 4-1) | Mar. 25 (BOS 4-3, OT)

The Bruins won the season series, but the Sabres are a new-look team now. Buffalo handed them a brutal loss coming out of the Christmas break, and even in the Bruins’ overtime win in March, it took a late push to get there.

For Buffalo, it is their first time back in the playoffs in 15 years. They are not just squeezing into the postseason, either. They clinched the Atlantic Division title with a 4-1 win over the Chicago Blackhawks on Monday.

Since the GM change, they are the best team in the NHL with a 36-9-4 record. Their 76 points are eight more than the next-best team, and in that span, they have allowed 128 goals, the second least.

Both goaltenders have had career-high seasons, with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (22-9-3, 2.52 GAA, .910 SV%) and Alex Lyon (20-10-4, 2.77 GAA, .907 SV%) splitting the heavy lifting.

They boast the league’s fourth-best penalty kill (82.1%), which can cause the Bruins some trouble as their power play has not been as sharp as it once was.

This season: 1-1-1

Nov. 1 (BOS 2-1) | Nov. 17 (CAR 3-1) | Apr. 7 (CAR 6-5, OT)

The Hurricanes are a familiar playoff opponent for the Bruins; the two teams played each other in 2019, 2020, and 2022. Rod Brind’Amour has been behind the Carolina bench for all of those runs, but has not advanced past the Eastern Conference Final.

Their style of play is no different; they are just backed by a stronger roster. The Bruins beat them in November, playing a game true to their defensive structure, while their game in April featured more offense.

The Hurricanes are the best team in the Eastern Conference and clinched the conference title on Monday night. They pour an average of 32.3 shots on goal per game, only second to Colorado, and they rank third in goals scored (289).

They allow the least amount of shots per game (23.9), and have been steadied in net by former Bruin prospect Brandon Bussi (30-6-2, 2.50 GAA, .892 SV%), though he lacks NHL playoff experience. However, Pyotr Kochetkov, who was supposed to be out with a season-ending injury, was just recalled from a conditioning stint with the Chicago Wolves (AHL).

Taylor Hall moved onto the second line this season, and that line (Hall-Logan Stankoven–Jackson Blake) ranks second in expected goals for (33) and fourth in goals for (34).

They also come with the league’s fourth-best power play (25.0%).

SCENARIOS

The Bruins play Tuesday night with a chance to lock in the Eastern Conference playoff matchups. The Ottawa Senators, who are one point behind, play on Wednesday.

A Bruins win clinches a series against the Buffalo Sabres. If they lose, the door remains open for the Senators to move ahead of the Bruins in the wild card race.

If the Bruins lose and the Senators climb to the top wild card, the Bruins will play the Carolina Hurricanes.