College Football Week 11 Highlights, Reactions, and Week 12 Preview

For a moment, it looked like the top of the Big Ten could be thrown into chaos. Instead, Week 11 plunged only the top of the ACC into complete and total confusion.

And yet, neither conference race actually changed. As hard as that may be to believe after both Louisville and Virginia were upset, the same likelihoods await the ACC now that awaited the ACC before Saturday’s mess.

Obviously, the same is true of the Big Ten after both Indiana and Oregon avoided upset bids, but should either the Hoosiers or the Ducks be doubted a bit more because of those close calls?

CFB Week 11 overreactions to avoid

Don’t overreact to Saturday’s Big Ten drama. Winning is hard, winning on the road is harder, and both Indiana and Oregon ended up winning on the road.

If anything, the Indiana Hoosiers and Oregon Ducks actually helped each other’s College Football Playoff resumes. The Hoosiers struggled at Iowa a few weeks ago; now that headache has more validity thanks to the Ducks’ difficulties at Iowa on Saturday.

And Oregon needed double overtime to escape at Happy Valley earlier this season, albeit before Penn State’s spiral gained so much speed; Indiana barely getting by in Happy Valley reminded the world of the Nittany Lions’ quality potential, now more of an asset in Oregon’s favor.

All paths continue to point toward Indiana meeting Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. As long as the Hoosiers keep that game within two possessions, it will be a further piece of praise for the Ducks, particularly given how committee members tend to look at the validity of the transitive property, flawed though that thought may be.

Do not start doubting either Indiana or Oregon because they struggled on the road against the upper-middle class of the Big Ten. Yes, even Penn State can be described as the upper-middle class of the Big Ten; just because the Nittany Lions this year prefer to live among the worst members of this society does not mean the roster is not talented enough to have nights of upper-middle class residency.

In fact, Saturday’s frustrations may be reason to believe in both the Hoosiers and the Ducks in Week 12.

Douglas’s advice: No team is as good or as bad as its most recent game. Overreactions to those recent games are why this column exists, and often a great way to find an early-week bet. Oregon is already a 21.5-point favorite against Minnesota on Friday night. That home game should give the Ducks a chance to regain some mojo. Bet Oregon up to -24.

Similarly, Indiana is a 30.5-point favorite at home against Wisconsin. While the Badgers sprang an upset of Washington this weekend, their leading passer was the punter. That is not a recipe for success on the road against a Top-4 team in the country. Bet Indiana up to -34.5, utterly trusting Curt Cignetti to hang at least 35 and probably shut out Wisconsin.

Don’t overreact to the ACC’s chaos. It is not actually that chaotic. Nothing changed this weekend.

No, really, the two most likely conference championship matchups a week ago remain the two most likely conference championship matchups now. The winner of Virginia at Duke this weekend is most likely to meet Louisville in the ACC title game.

Headlines will say this is more complicated, but it isn’t. Let’s try it in a few plain sentences.

Georgia Tech is listed at +200 to win the ACC at FanDuel, and Georgia Tech should be in the ACC Championship Game if it beats both Boston College and Pittsburgh.

The winner of Virginia (+700) vs. Duke (+280) should be in the ACC Championship Game. With Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris possibly in concussion protocol this week, side with the Blue Devils outright.

If Pittsburgh (+800) beats both Georgia Tech and Miami, the Panthers should be in the ACC Championship Game.

If Georgia Tech loses a game and Pittsburgh loses a game, the winner of Louisville (+1100) vs. SMU (+600) should make the ACC Championship Game. All three aspects together make this more unlikely, but each individual thought in that first sentence of this paragraph is a thought more likely to happen than not. And the Cardinals should be favored against the Mustangs.

Douglas’s advice: Ignore anyone trying to tell you Miami still has a chance at an ACC Championship and thus a Playoff berth. Perhaps the Hurricanes have a mathematical route, but the betting value right now is with Louisville at +1100.

The Cardinals will be favored in their remaining games, they are analytically the best team in the ACC, and they do not need a bounty of help to reach the title game.

CFB Week 11 reactions to make

Do overreact to Texas Tech’s walloping of BYU. That game was nowhere near as close as its 29-7 final score suggested.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are positioning themselves for the No. 5 seed in the final Playoff bracket, in part by publicly chalking up their sole loss to the injury absence of quarterback Behren Morton. Going 12-1 with a conference championship and some convincing wins in November should bump Texas Tech past Mississippi and Georgia.

The perk of facing the No. 12 seed — quite possibly the American champion, now favored to be South Florida at +130 at FanDuel — betters the No. 5 seed’s title hopes, perhaps lending some value to Texas Tech’s +1800 right now.

Approach that modestly, however. It is only an asset in your portfolio. It should not be seen as a likely winner.

Douglas’s advice: Doubt Texas Tech’s actual Playoff viability. The Red Raiders kicked five field goals on Saturday, furthering a problem. Texas Tech ranked just No. 66 in finishing quality drives entering this weekend, averaging 3.47 points per quality drive. That kind of weakness will not lead to a deep Playoff run, barring a run of breaks in the bracket.

The asset of a +1800 ticket makes sense, but expecting it to shore up your portfolio on its own does not.

Rapid fire: More Week 12 bets to target

Arizona State should beat West Virginia next weekend, but the only sure thing is that points will be at a premium thanks to the rash of injuries in both backfields. Take that Under as long as it stays at 45 or higher.
Southern Miss may be the class of the Sun Belt; no one’s noticing as long as James Madison keeps its Playoff hopes alive, but the Golden Eagles could win the conference. Do not worry about a futures bet right now. Simply keep tailing Southern Miss every week, including next week against Texas State, as long as the spread does not exceed -9.5.
New Mexico remains a difficult offense to prepare for, and Colorado State has given up preparing. As the week progresses, ponder some alternate spreads on the Lobos; until then, grab New Mexico up to -13.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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