Updated:
May 12, 2026 , 09:18 AM ET
• 4 min read
Chris Gotterup (+6000) headlines our PGA Championship long-shot predictions on a course ripe for the picking of unexpected winners.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Si Woo Kim watches his approach shot.
The season’s second major is here, and we’re dreaming big.
My PGA Championship long-shot predictions are eyeing a trio of would-be first-time winners in Chris Gotterup (+6000), Min Woo Lee (+6000), or Si Woo Kim (+6600), who are perfect fits for this particular course. Jake Knapp, one of my initial long-shot picks this week, withdrew from the tournament on Tuesday due to injury.
Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pa., hosts the PGA Championship for the first time since 1962. The new-look major venue helps level the playing field this week. While Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite by the latest PGA Championship odds, I’m looking at three outright picks with odds between +6000 and +8000.
After a recent run of major dominance from Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, this is the week to target sleeper picks and hit on a big payday.
🎯 Best PGA Championship long shots
| Golfer |  |
Reason | Value prop |
|---|---|---|---|
 Chris Gotterup |
+6000 | Two-time winner in 2026, with driving distance and hot putter | Top 20 finish (+225) |
| Min Woo Lee | +6000 | Back-to-back top-20 finishes in Signature Events, but odds lengthened | Top Australian (+200) |
 Si Woo Kim |
+6600 | Top 10 on Tour in bogey avoidance and par-4 scoring | Top 10 finish (+450) |
 Jake Knapp |
Picks made on May 12 at 9 a.m. ET. See Neil Parker’s PGA Championship best bets for more.
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🔍 What I’m looking for in PGA Championship long shots
I consider this to be one of the best weeks for a long-shot major winner in recent memory.
Aronimink Golf Club hasn’t hosted the PGA Championship since 1962. That lack of familiarity for the entire 156-man field helps to level the playing field this week. While Scottie Scheffler has a 17% win probability, no other player tops 9%. Only two golfers have outright odds shorter than +1000 at BetMGM this week.
A lackluster weekend leaderboard in the Truist Championship Signature Event further helps our cause in looking for sleeper picks this week. But we’re still staying away from the true dark-horse contenders, like Kristoffer Reitan, Rickie Fowler, and Alex Fitzpatrick.
For more, check out our PGA Championship cheat sheet for a deep dive on the tournament.
Key stats
- Strokes gained: off-the-tee (distance > accuracy)
- Strokes gained: approach
- Par-4 scoring
- Bogey avoidance
💤 PGA Championship sleeper picks
Best long-shot bet: Chris Gotterup (+6000 at BetMGM)
Chris Gotterup enters this week 10th in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), but he’s 32nd on the oddsboard for the outright winner market at BetMGM. The value is hard to ignore.
- Course fit: Long hitter and efficient par-4 scorer
- Recent form: Two PGA Tour wins this season, and a solid T24 finish in his Masters debut
- Key stat: 1.12 strokes gained: putting per round during the Truist Championship
Alternate prop pick: Top-20 finish (+225)
Covers golf betting tools
Sleeper pick 2: Min Woo Lee (+6000 at BetMGM)
Missed the cut in the Masters but has rebounded with back-to-back top-20 finishes in Signature Events.
- Course fit: 18th in scrambling percentage this season — key for an unfamiliar course
- Recent form: 1.05 SG: off-the-tee per round during the Truist Championship
- Key stat: 26th or better on Tour in bogey avoidance and par-4 scoring
Alternate prop pick: Top Australian (+200)
Sleeper pick 3: Si Woo Kim (+6600 at BetMGM)
Six top-10 finishes through 13 events this season and tied for eighth in last year’s PGA Championship.
- Course fit: Top 10 on Tour in bogey avoidance (9) and par-4 scoring (5)
- Recent form: Back-to-back top 5s in the RBC Heritage (3) and Cadillac Championship (T4) before a struggle in the Truist Championship
- Key stat: 11th in PGA Tour par-4 scoring average this season
Alternate prop pick: Top-10 finish (+450)
📜 Recent PGA Championship long-shot winners
- 2021: Phil Mickelson (+25000)
- 2016: Jimmy Walker (+12500)
- 2011: Keegan Bradley (+15000)
- 2010: Martin Kaymer (+4000)
- 2009: Y.E. Yang (+12500)
Odds via Sports Odds History prior to Round 1 of the tournament year.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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