One month from now, you’ll be filling out our bracket, the First Four games will be tipping off in Dayton, and the anticipation for the best tournament in sports will be at its peak.
To help us get there … answering questions on your mind this week.
(Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.)
What is the over/under on new head coaches in the ACC for next season? — Tom W.
Considering we had five ACC coaches listed on the hot seat in our recent check-in, 3.5 feels like a fair line.
Of those five — Adrian Autry (Syracuse), Jeff Capel (Pitt), Steve Forbes (Wake Forest), Earl Grant (Boston College) and Damon Stoudamire (Georgia Tech) — Autry’s dismissal feels the most like a foregone conclusion. Stoudamire, whose Yellow Jackets are in last place in the league and on a seven-game losing streak, might be next. Word is that Grant will probably get another season, in no small part because of Boston College’s financial situation, which leaves Capel and Forbes.
Unless, of course, there’s movement elsewhere.
A segment of North Carolina fans, for instance, still want Hubert Davis fired, but I’d be fairly shocked at that outcome as of today, considering the Tar Heels have been ranked all season and were in line for a top-five seed before Caleb Wilson’s injury. UNC’s administration is pleased with how Davis made the most of the resources at his disposal. Elsewhere, could Will Wade be on the move after one season at NC State? It’s unlikely, but there’s at least some smoke there — especially with his old LSU job likely to open. What about Mike Young at Virginia Tech? Could Stanford’s Kyle Smith be in the mix somewhere else with more resources? And if Notre Dame continues sliding, could Micah Shrewsberry be in trouble?
That’s more than 3.5 names. So I’ll take the over, although I don’t anticipate there being quite as much movement as some might expect. Specifically, I’ll say four ACC jobs change hands. — Brendan Marks
Will the NCAA ever create a centralized scheduling body for out-of-conference play? As a Miami (Ohio) fan, it’s super annoying because no power-conference teams wanted to play us. — Milin R.
A centralized scheduling body would do wonders for the sport. There might be a few (OK, a million) logistical nightmares with having one committee assemble 365 schedules, given the different needs of each program. But regulating scheduling would be a massive plus.
At the very least, a governing body that’s able to establish some minimums for NCAA Tournament consideration would be a nice twist on the current system. Something like forcing every Power 5 team to play a true road game at a mid-major to be eligible for an at-large bid would really help even the playing field. And dare I say it: It would be outrageously fun.
The financial structure makes it a unique scheduling beast. Low-major teams need “buy” games — sometimes many buy games — to keep their athletic departments afloat, and mid-major budgets vary wildly, even within the same conference. But the underlying truth is that P5 schools hold all the cards, and if they decide the risk is not worth the reward regarding a possible mid-major opponent, that school is mostly out of luck.
You mentioned Miami (Ohio)’s difficulty in getting quality games, but it is a universal problem. Look at the five mid-majors (outside of the Mountain West) that are closest to earning an at-large bid: Miami, Saint Louis, VCU, Liberty, Belmont. Four of those five rank outside the top 170 in nonconference strength of schedule, per the NET. SLU is 320th, Belmont is 353rd, and Miami is 363rd. Creativity can only get them so far. — Jim Root
Seton Hall is the Big East’s only real chance to get a fourth team in the tournament this year. (Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)
Should the Big East oust Val Ackerman? Her teams keep getting the shaft in the polls, and more importantly, by recent selection committees. Feels like the conference needs a better promoter of the brand, given the league has won four of the last nine national titles. — Phil T.
Unfortunately for Val, the Big East has not given her much to market recently. This season is arguably the league’s nadir, as only four of the 11 teams have a better overall record than 13-12. One of those four, Seton Hall, may not even get to the NCAA Tournament, as the Pirates notched just one notable nonconference result (beating NC State in Maui) and have not separated themselves in the Big East standings.
The Big East’s lack of success in the nonconference was jarring and ultimately rendered many Big East games as largely useless for building an NCAA Tournament resume. Here’s the ugly data. In nonconference Quad 1 and 2 games, the Big East went 53-101, a winning percentage of just 34.4 percent. Against Q1 foes, that mark was 16-65 (19.8 percent). Compare that to the next-worst P5 conference in each category: the Big Ten went 114-155 vs. Q1 and Q2 opponents (42.4 percent) and 51-119 vs. Q1 foes (30.0 percent).
To your point, the league has produced some top-flight squads. Jay Wright’s Villanova, Dan Hurley’s UConn, and Rick Pitino’s St. John’s were/are all fantastic programs. Marquette had a really nice run under Shaka Smart until this season. But the bottom of the conference has been horrible for years, and the middle has taken a sizable step back in the last couple of seasons, as well. The conference commissioner can only do so much. At some point, the league’s programs have to win more games against other conferences. — Root
Serious question: How much do people care about the regular season? For me, it’s almost zero. We already know all the teams that have a realistic shot at winning the tournament. — Glenn B.
I assume most of the folks reading a college hoops mailbag in mid-February do, in fact, care about the regular season. (And we appreciate you for that.) But Glenn raises a fair point. I’d argue it’s less about knowing who has a chance to win the title — Arizona was ranked No. 13 in the preseason poll, one spot behind UCLA — and more about casual fans who only start tuning in for conference tournaments and March Madness, and somehow still manage to beat you in your office bracket pool. There’s also a good chunk of less casual fans who don’t start watching in earnest until football season winds down, and might only pay close attention to the conference their favorite team plays in. College basketball isn’t alone in this, either — interest in the NBA and MLB both ratchet up for the playoffs.
Part of the issue is that nonconference play is such a jumbled, disjointed mess. It starts in early November, just as college football and the NFL are hitting the home stretch. Feast Week and the MTEs and the high-profile one-off matchups are great, but they’re also spread out, and it’s tough to get the casuals invested and in a rhythm with all the buy games. Watching UConn beat UMass Lowell by 60 points isn’t much of a big-tent draw to tip off the season.
I do think the sport could benefit from a more intentional, glammed-up start — maybe move the Champions Classic back to opening weekend? — but that won’t change the broader calendar issues or buy-game fatigue with the nonconference slate. So my advice is, if you’re a sicko who loves college basketball in November and December, that’s great. And if you jump on the bandwagon in March, that’s fine too — welcome aboard. After all, the best way to grow the sport and increase year-round interest is to hook folks with the NCAA Tournament, which is a perfect event. Surely no one in charge would be foolish enough to screw that part up. — Justin Williams
Why are networks (specifically and glaringly ESPN) so incapable of properly scheduling the weekend college basketball slate? Every game runs into the next, so much so that you might miss the first 10-15 minutes of the next game. You would think they would have addressed this with more time between scheduled TV games. — John S.
Like most things, you can trace this answer back to money. Games are scheduled for optimal viewership and advertising windows — because the most important thing is to keep you seated on your couch and watching. If there’s a 20-minute lull between games, ESPN or any network doesn’t want to risk you changing the channel or turning off the TV and not coming back. The networks would much rather have you flip over to the start of a game on ESPNews — or stream it on their app! — or suffer through 15 minutes of free throws and excruciating replay reviews for a game you care less about, even if it spikes your blood pressure.
I’m not arguing in favor of this, by the way. It drives me crazy, too.
There also seems to be a lingering impact in college football and basketball, especially of traditional start times and TV windows remaining the same, even as the number and length of in-game TV timeouts have increased.
Bumping start times back by a half hour might solve the issue of games running long and overlapping, but until there’s proof that it can also make the networks more money, I doubt it will change. — Williams
In a typical Big Ten basketball game, how many times do you think the referees fail to call “traveling?” My estimate is 25. — Colin M.
I’ll take the under. I watch a lot of games. I don’t see traveling as that big of an issue. I think the hardest ones to call are on post-ups when there’s probably some foot-dragging that gets missed occasionally.
Traveling is probably one of the most misunderstood calls in basketball. For instance, many people think a step-through is a travel. You are allowed to lift your established pivot foot to shoot or pass so long as it doesn’t return to the floor before releasing the ball. Watch BYU’s AJ Dybantsa. He’s as good as anyone I’ve seen at utilizing that move. The Eurostep is another that people might think is a travel. The move that is getting utilized more this season — and probably mistaken for a travel — is the slow step when a player pauses on one foot. Here’s one that was called a travel from Michigan State’s Jeremy Fears Jr. earlier this season:
Fears and Illinois’ Keaton Wagler are two of the best in the country at this move. Some might think they’re traveling. They’re not. Also, officiating is a hard job. They’re going to miss calls every game. Sometimes coaches’ complaints are valid, but there’s probably more human error in officiating than just about any profession. It’s because it’s extremely difficult. — CJ Moore
