Brad Powers’ CFB Best Bets

I would play this to +28.5.

Even though I have Notre Dame listed second in my college football power ratings, the Fighting Irish are in one of the biggest letdown spots in college football this season.

Last week, in a must-win game for the CFB Playoff, the Fighting Irish beat No. 1 Miami 31-24. It was an emotional and physical 60-minute effort that included a field storming after the game.

Naturally, you would expect a letdown this week, and the last team Notre Dame wants to see is its disrespected rival, Boston College, which will be sky-high for the game.

Although Boston College has lost 10 straight in the series, only two have been by more than this point spread. Last year, Boston College lost by just 15 as a 30.5-point underdog.

This year’s Boston College team is much improved. Despite a 4-5 record, it has outgained opponents and has a +0.3 yards-per-play margin.

Finally, both teams run a slow tempo. Boston College ranks No. 97 in plays per minute, while Notre Dame ranks No. 102. Fewer plays mean fewer possessions and fewer opportunities for Notre Dame to win by a significant margin here.

Utah vs Arizona:  Arizona +2.5

I am calling for the eighth outright upset of a top-2 team this year, and I would play this to pick’em.

These teams have played schedules of similar strength, according to Jeff Sagarin’s ratings. Utah has played the No. 57-ranked schedule, while Arizona has played the 60th. Yet Arizona has a better yards-per-play margin than Utah (+1.7 vs. +1.4).
 
I personally like trading defensive home underdogs. Arizona’s defense ranks No. 29 in the country in yards per play allowed, while Utah’s ranks No. 53.

Finally, I like the spot for Arizona. The Wildcats are at home for the second straight week and have an extra day of preparation. Meanwhile, Utah is traveling after one of its biggest games in recent memory, a 28-20 win over archrival BYU.

Tulane failed to cover the spread by 47.5 points last week, and I’d play Rice to -3.

“I am embarrassed by what transpired on the field in front of our student-athletes’ families, alumni, fans and the entire Tulane community,” Tulane athletic director David Harris said in a statement posted on the university’s athletic website Saturday night.

I don’t think that bodes well for head coach Will Hall or the Tulane locker room down the stretch.

On top of that, Rice has a better yards-per-play margin despite playing a slightly tougher schedule.

Matchup-wise, Tulane’s defensive weakness is against the run, where it ranks No. 134 in the country, allowing 215 rushing yards per game. Rice’s strength is its run game, which ranks No. 4 in the country, averaging 270 rushing yards per game.