The Patriots’ schedule isn’t getting any easier this week.
The 3-0 Bills are next on the Patriots’ slate and present their most difficult test of the season.
The Patriots viewed their Week 5 win over the Bills last season as a watershed moment after beginning the year 2-2. They’re in an even more vulnerable state this season at 1-2 and coming off of an ugly loss to the Jaguars.
Here are 10 things we’re watching as the Patriots look to turn their fortune around.
• Can Drake Maye rebound? It’s the biggest question on any Patriots fan’s mind this week. Maye has started his Year 3 campaign with six interceptions and a lost fumble as his mental errors have only snowballed since losing A.J. Brown to a high ankle sprain in Week 1. The season has started so poorly for Maye that it would actually be somewhat surprising at this point for him to return to his 2025 form, when he was the MVP runner-up to Matthew Stafford. There have been some glimmers of hope. While Maye leads the NFL with a 7.5% interception rate, his bad-throw rate is only 9.2% and sixth-lowest in the league. That means that Maye is making far more bad decisions than poor throws. The Bills look formidable on paper. Maye might need a near-flawless performance to lead the Patriots to victory.
• Will Maye’s shoulder affect his performance? Maye began the week with strange, evasive answers about the lingering effects of an injury to his throwing shoulder he sustained in the postseason. Then he popped up on this week’s injury report with a right shoulder ailment. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said it’s a new injury that occurred in the Patriots’ Week 3 loss to the Jaguars. He did get tackled hard on a few runs.
So, do we see Maye’s arm strength suffer this week? Maye said Wednesday that his shoudler isn’t affecting his performance. And he acknowledged that his issues have been poor decisions, not throws. Maye might want to play more carefully this week, however, and avoid any hard hits that would mean landing on his right shoulder.
• Who’s next in line to start at right guard? The Patriots have placed Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten on injured reserve in consecutive weeks and now will need a third starting right guard in four games. Head coach Mike Vrabel said he anticipates Ben Brown filling in this week. Walter Rouse struggled in reserve last week against the Jaguars, and the Patriots seemed intent on Brown serving as their backup center. Matt Pryor, when he gets up to speed, is an intriguing option in the future because of his size and experience.
• How do the Patriots handle Greg Rousseau? The Bills edge defender has been one of the NFL’s most productive pass rushers through three games. He primarily aligns on the defensive left, meaning he’ll be going against the Patriots’ right tackle. Starter Morgan Moses is banged up and played like it in Week 3. His backup is rookie Caleb Lomu, who didn’t look much better in mop-up duty.
• Can the left side of the offensive line keep it up? Left tackle Will Campbell, left guard Alijah Vera-Tucker and center Jared Wilson all played very well in pass protection against the Jaguars. Campbell’s performance, especially, has been a silver lining to the season.
• How can the Patriots get their run game going? Rhamondre Stevenson is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. TreVeyon Henderson isn’t faring much better at 4.1 yards per carry, and that includes a 39-yard touchdown run. Whether it’s better blocking, breaking more tackles or less predictability, the Patriots need their run game to threaten opposing defenses. If it can’t, then it only makes Maye’s job more difficult.
• Can the Patriots pressure and contain Josh Allen? Expect the Patriots to continue to blitz heavily this week. They need to get home, however. The Patriots blitzed Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence on 53.1% of snaps in Week 3, but they only had a 31.3% pressure rate. Allen has been very good when blitzed this season, but he has just a 50% completion percentage while pressured.
• Can Milton Williams step up? The high-paid defensive tackle was one of the Patriots’ best players in last year’s Super Bowl run. He has just four pressures and a 45.0 defensive grade through three games this season. He has to step up, especially with defensive tackle Christian Barmore out with a shoulder injury.
• Who’s available in the secondary? Cornerback Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) is out, and safety Craig Woodson (shoulder) is still on the injury report after missing Week 3. That leaves cornerbacks Carlton Davis, Charles Woods, Marcus Jones, Channing Canada and Karon Prunty and safeties Kevin Byard and Jaylen Reed as healthy options on the 53-man roster. The team also has cornerback Kindle Vildor and safeties Mike Brown and Elliott Davison on their practice squad.
It would be ideal for the Patriots to have Gonzalez available to help cover D.J. Moore, but the Bills like to spread the ball around to tight end Dalton Kincaid and wide receivers Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir and Josh Palmer, so they’ll need all hands on deck.
• The Patriots will need all of the help they can get this week against the Bills. That means that kicker Andy Borregales will have to be on point. Last week, he was wide right on a 38-yard field goal attempt.
