Rain is expected to spread across Massachusetts beginning Monday afternoon and continuing through Tuesday, with widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches likely and some parts of the state at risk of up to 6 inches.
The heavy rain prompted National Weather Service forecasters to issue a flood watch, which is in effect through Tuesday afternoon for southeast Massachusetts.
Forecasters note this is a particularly challenging forecast because computer models agree on the potential for extreme localized rainfall but disagree significantly on exactly where the heaviest bands will set up. Some model guidance places the worst rainfall south of Massachusetts, while others bring it directly into the region.
Southeast Massachusetts and the Cape and Islands face the greatest flood risk, while Central and Western Massachusetts can expect periods of rain as well, though totals will generally be lighter.
The rain will be slowest to arrive across northeast Massachusetts, where steady precipitation may not develop until Monday evening or overnight.
Rain is expected to continue into Tuesday, particularly across Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Residents in flood-prone areas, near streams, or in low-lying locations should monitor conditions closely and avoid driving through flooded roadways, forecasters warned.
Conditions are expected to improve significantly by Wednesday as the weather system departs.
Wednesday into Thursday should bring mainly dry weather with breezy conditions, and temperatures will rebound into the upper 70s to near 90 in some locations by Thursday — a return to typical mid-July warmth and humidity.
The Springfield area and other inland communities in the Connecticut River Valley will be among the spots most likely to approach 90 degrees on Thursday.
The stretch of dry and warm weather may be brief, however.
A shortwave trough and associated cold front could bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms back to the region by Friday, with that risk potentially lingering into Saturday. The exact timing and intensity of that system will depend on how quickly the front moves through.
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