Ah, February. Of any of the 12 months out of the year, February might be the one page on the calendar when college football head coaches can take the family to a remote island and unplug from the insanity of their profession.
The transfer portal hay is in the barn by now, as is the rapidly-less-significant high school recruiting class. Spring ball is still a month away, and the rubber chicken booster circuit looms large after that. And just like that, it is time for fall practice to start and the real business of football to get rolling.
But February, ah February… time for any self-respecting head coach to kick back in the sand with a tropical beverage in hand and enjoy a 28-day deep breath.
The problem is that there are some coaches who are finding their beach chairs a little bit warmer than they remember, not from the tropical sun but from the residual effect their day gig is delivering. Those coaches might have bolted town for an all-inclusive retreat, but the hot seat at their office desk is toasting their backsides no matter where they park it in February and beyond.
It is almost impossible to believe that the 2026 coaching carousel will be anything like 2025, as 30-plus gigs came open across the country. But we have identified the 5 most likely candidates to discover a whole lot more free time between now and when some lucky coach hoists the 2027 College Football Playoff trophy.
They are:
5. Bill O’Brien, Boston College
Reported 2026 buyout: $12.5 million
Why his seat is hot: Even against modest expectations in Chestnut Hill, O’Brien has managed to underwhelm at BC – going 9-16 overall in 2 seasons (with a 2-10 record in 2025) is no guarantee that there will be more beyond the third season. Boston College will be able to quickly show just how good (or bad…) it is early with nonconference tests in Cincinnati and Rutgers before ACC play begins. O’Brien doesn’t need to have the Eagles in contention for a conference title, but you gotta figure anything less than a .500 record will draw real estate agents in a hurry.
4. Bill Belichick, North Carolina
Reported 2026 buyout: $20 million
Why his seat is hot: Amid much fanfare and hoopla, Belichick took over Chapel Hill and infused so much hope into Tar Heel Nation heading into the 2025 season – only to see the actual product be an absolute train wreck. Coach Hoodie’s off-the-field drama didn’t help make matters easier, as punch-line writers enjoy it when a team performs even more awkwardly than the head coach’s relationship situation. Going to Ireland to start the season in Week 0 will take said drama international, and if the Heels aren’t any better than last season’s 4-8 debacle… well, Chapel Bill might decide to head off into the sunset before the natives get to him first.
3. Dabo Swinney, Clemson
Reported 2026 buyout: $57 million
Why his seat is hot: The rule of thumb used to be simple. Win a national championship at a school and stay out of hot water, and you’ve got a job for life. Swinney has 2 of those NCs, and a winning percentage over 78%, yet here we are – talking about running a future Hall of Fame coach out on a rail. Swinney finally started dipping his toe in the transfer portal waters, only to have it spectacularly backfire (hey thanks, Pete Golding…), and Clemson was a hot mess throughout 2025. The only saving grace for Swinney is his exorbitant buyout, as it is well established that ACC programs aren’t exactly flush with the kind of cash SEC and Big Ten programs tote around.
2. Shane Beamer, South Carolina
Reported 2026 buyout: $19.5 million
Why his seat is hot: If not for one shy of half of the Southeastern Conference programs reloading coaches in the 2025 cycle, Beamer might have already joined the bread line following last season’s 4-8 disappointment. Much like O’Brien at Boston College, expectations in Columbia aren’t exactly through the roof – but being more respectable than a 1-7 mark in SEC play is a perquisite. Beamer has shown he can win ballgames at South Carolina, evidenced by the 3 winning seasons he had out of the 4 others so far, but the SEC ain’t getting any easier. It is now or never, and we will know which one is which at the end of the 3-game midseason stretch against Tennessee, Oklahoma and Texas A&M.
1. Mike Norvell, Florida State
Reported 2026 buyout: $51 million
Why his seat is hot: Where should we begin? For starters, Florida State was quietly sniffing around the Lane Kiffin drama in November – and would have mashed the nuclear button to bounce Norvell out for the Lane Train if it had become a true option. Super-agent Jimmy Sexton committed larceny on Norvell’s behalf when he engineered Norvell’s insane contract extension in 2023 following the ACC title run to the tune of 10 years at $80 million. And then there’s the buyout, which as we discussed with Swinney at Clemson was probably the deciding factor Norvell didn’t get bumped off after back-to-back seasons of 2-10 and 5-7. Bottom line: Norvell has to win big in 2026, which will be a chore with Miami, Louisville, SMU, Clemson, Pittsburgh and Virginia on the ACC slate and Alabama and Florida as nonconference opponents. The smart money is on Norvell cashing that buyout check and joining Jimbo Fisher on a private island somewhere for year-round fruity drinks instead of just the February ones.
An APSE national award-winning writer and editor, David Wasson has almost four decades of experience in the print journalism business in Florida and Alabama. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times and several national magazines and websites. He also hosts Gulfshore Sports with David Wasson, weekdays from 3-5 pm across Southwest Florida and on FoxSportsFM.com. His Twitter handle: @JustDWasson.
