As some economic reports show that Thanksgiving holiday feasts will be cheaper this year than in the past, a survey from a Massachusetts business coalition suggests Bay Staters aren’t buying it.
The Mass Opportunity Alliance found that a majority of Bay Staters who participated in a survey last week, leading into Turkey Day, believe they will actually be paying more for Thanksgiving meals than last year.
Of the 507 Massachusetts residents polled in the survey, 71% indicated they are taking caution as they head out to the grocery store to purchase items for their feasts. The survey, conducted by research firm Big Village, was performed at a 95% confidence level.
“The discrepancy between data and public sentiment suggests recent price dips don’t negate years of steep grocery bills, which remain about 30% higher than before the pandemic,” the Mass Opportunity Alliance stated on Tuesday. “Meanwhile, the Commonwealth’s cost-of-living crisis continues to cause financial anxiety and pessimism.”
Bay Staters are also indicating they are not too excited about post-Thanksgiving sale holidays, like Black Friday and Cyber Monday, as nearly half (47%) of respondents in the survey said they plan to spend less than they did in the past.
Nationally, cost estimates for Thanksgiving celebrations vary.
The American Farm Bureau Federation, which uses volunteer shoppers in all 50 states to survey prices, has reported that Thanksgiving dinner for 10 would cost $55.16 this year, or 5% less than last year.
The Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, using NielsenIQ data from September, has also estimated that feeding 10 people on Thursday using store-brand products would cost $80 this year, which is 2% to 3% lower than last year’s estimate.
But Datasembly, a market research company that surveys weekly prices at 150,000 U.S. stores, found last week that a basket of 11 Thanksgiving staples — including a 10-pound frozen turkey, 10 Russet potatoes, a box of stuffing and cans of corn, green beans and cranberry sauce – cost $58.81, or 4.1% more, than last year.
Farmers have indicated they are grappling with the impact of an ongoing outbreak of the bird flu, which has killed more than 2 million U.S. turkeys in the last three months alone.
Avian metapneumovirus, which causes turkeys to lay fewer eggs, is also causing the U.S. turkey flock to shrink to a 40-year low.
The shrinking population is expected to cause wholesale turkey prices to rise 44% this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Despite the increase, many stores are offering discounted or even free turkeys to soften the potential blow to Thanksgiving meal budgets.
But even if the bird is cheaper than last year, the ingredients to prepare the rest of the holiday feast may not be. Tariffs on imported steel, for example, have increased prices for canned goods.
President Donald Trump has touted Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal basket, which he said was 25% cheaper than last year. But that was because Walmart included a different assortment and fewer products overall this year.
“With this level of economic uncertainty,” the Mass Opportunity Alliance stated, “it’s no wonder residents are wary of policies that could stuff even less money into their pockets.”
U.S. Rep. Lori Trahan is sounding off on Thanksgiving meal costs.
“Thanksgiving is just a few days away,” the Bay State Democrat stated in an X post on Tuesday, “and prices are still higher than ever thanks to Trump’s tariffs and inflation. This was a policy choice. It didn’t have to happen.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
