After 13 weeks of NFL action, users trading on prediction markets like Kalshi agree that the pro football MVP race is down to two names: 23-year-old Drake Maye and 37-year-old Matthew Stafford.
Monday Night Football propelled Maye, the New England Patriots QB, into the favorite position. Maye threw for 282 yards and two touchdowns in a dominant performance by his team in defeating the Giants. Meanwhile, Stafford threw two interceptions, including a pick-six in the Los Angeles Rams’ surprising loss to the Carolina Panthers.
When the NFL MVP odds betting market opened at the best Massachusetts sportsbooks during the offseason, a lot of familiar names were at the top. Littered among the favorites were names like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. Those three have combined to win five of the last seven MVP awards, with Aaron Rodgers interrupting the party in 2020 and 2021.
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As the season progressed, different narratives emerged, and as a result, other players rose to the top. Included in this list are names like Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones. While all three are still having solid seasons, they no longer have the MVP juice.
Let’s analyze the Kalshi predictions market for the Pro Football MVP award and see how far the New England Patriots’ second-year signal caller is ahead of the pack.
Kalshi Pro Football MVP prediction market
Here’s how the Pro Football MVP market currently looks at Kalshi:
| Player | Kalshi trade percentage |
|---|---|
| Drake Maye, New England | 46% |
| Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams | 41% |
| Jordan Love, Green Bay | 7% |
| Dak Prescott, Dallas | 4% |
| Josh Allen, Buffalo | 3% |
All other players are receiving less than 1% of the trade activity. The percentages listed above reflect the volume of trades Kalshi has accepted on each player to win the AP NFL MVP. At the time of writing, over $15 million has been traded on this market. Percentages are subject to change.
Maye pulls ahead of Stafford in Week 13
- Maye: 46% at Kalshi
- Stafford: 41% at Kalshi
No matter where you look, at this point, the MVP conversation is down to two names. Maye and Stafford have combined for 87% of the activity in the Kalshi prediction market. At BetMGM Sportsbook, Maye is a -120 favorite, and Stafford is +115. No other player has odds lower than 15-to-1.
Stafford had a slight edge entering NFL Week 13, throwing 27 touchdowns since his last interception. However, the two had divergent performances in Week 13.
Stafford threw a touchdown on his first drive, but then threw interceptions on back-to-back drives. One was in the end zone, and the other was returned for a touchdown. Those two turnovers gave Carolina the life and momentum to pull off the upset. As a result, Los Angeles no longer controls its path to the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
On the other side, Maye dominated the Giants in primetime. The Patriots jumped out to a 30-7 lead at halftime and cruised to victory. New England now has the best record in football at 11-2.
Both teams are favorites to earn the playoff bye in their conference, according to the betting odds. Los Angeles has a slightly easier schedule remaining. Stafford has a chance to regain momentum against the lowly Arizona Cardinals while Maye is on bye this weekend.
This race will likely come down to who performs best in the final weeks of the season. There’s also the narrative of 37-year-old Stafford getting his first MVP. Maye will have plenty of opportunities in the future. How much of an impact will that have, if any?
Dak Prescott leads value plays
While we can all agree that the MVP is likely to be either Stafford or Maye, some people can’t help themselves and are always looking for a long shot or value play.
If the Dallas Cowboys continue their momentum and sneak into the playoffs, QB Dak Prescott will have a case. Dallas would likely need to win at least four of its final five games to have a chance, which would be seven wins in eight games to end the season. Prescott is second in the league in yards and touchdown passes.
Just 4% of trades at Kalshi are on Prescott. Dallas has an 18% chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN, but if that 18% does come to fruition, you’ll look like a genius for getting in on Prescott at this time.
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