College football Week 13 picks against the spread: Massive games in ACC, Big 12 races

On paper, the Week 13 slate has a few clearly important games and then a bunch of expected blowouts for the top teams in the country. Just in the top 10, two teams have bye weeks, two play FCS teams and three others are favored by more than 30 points.

That doesn’t create a lot of hype for this week’s action, but the spotlight games have plenty on the line, whether they affect potential conference title game berths or have College Football Playoff stakes.

Our staff has made picks against the spread for six games this week, plus wild-card picks at the bottom (along with picks standings). Read on for what to watch for in the four biggest games, but first, here are the picks:

No. 22 Missouri at No. 8 Oklahoma

Noon ET on ABC

The No. 8 Sooners climbed the mountaintop, downing then-No. 4 Alabama to play themselves into a playoff spot, for now. But the deadliest part of summiting Mount Everest is actually the trip down from the peak, and a home game against Missouri has “WARNING” written all over it.

The Tigers may be 7-3, but they’re a competent team that lost to Bama on a final-possession pick and Vanderbilt when a Hail Mary catch landed a couple of inches short of the goal line. They have one of the best front sevens in the SEC, an All-American candidate at running back in Ahmad Hardy and may get starting quarterback Beau Pribula back after what many thought was a season-ending injury in that Vandy game.

Oklahoma is still the better team, but the Tigers certainly have the bona fides to be a threat should the Sooners come out suffering from an emotional hangover.

Quarterback John Mateer appears nearly at full strength after his hand surgery; he was again looking like a dynamic dual threat against Alabama, even if OU’s defense and special teams did most of the work in that game. Mizzou’s secondary is ripe for exploitation, even for a passer like Mateer, who has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in three of the past four games. Plus, the Sooners have more than enough of a pass rush to disrupt a shaky Tiger offensive line.

Oklahoma earned a seat at the table last week. Teams that stay there handle their business against lesser foes. If OU is locked in and playing angry, Missouri won’t be able to keep pace offensively. But if the Sooners drag and it turns into a four-quarter game, the high of the Bama win could be a short-lived peak in a near-miss season.

No. 15 USC at No. 7 Oregon

3:30 p.m. ET on CBS

As far as ripple effects go, this game is the biggest stone in this week’s pond. At the start of the season, No. 7 Oregon’s schedule looked strong enough that a 10-2 showing seemed like it would be playoff-worthy.

Retrospection has softened that schedule considerably, and the Ducks lost to the best team they played in Indiana. A second loss wouldn’t necessarily knock them out, but their candidacy would certainly be up for debate, keeping hope alive for a half dozen fringe teams.

Conversely, No. 15 USC would be on the playoff precipice with an upset win in Eugene, and a follow-up victory against UCLA could cement their spot.

Given USC’s rapid ascension and Oregon’s lack of true tests, the 9.5-point spread seems a bit generous even if the Ducks are at home. USC’s biggest question under Lincoln Riley has been whether the Trojans are physical enough to match up with the Big Ten powers, and while Oregon certainly has the upfront advantage on both sides of the ball, the gap is not as wide as in years past. The return of tight end Kenyon Sadiq helps, and if receiver Dakorien Moore can suit up, the Ducks get considerably more dangerous.

USC has already shown itself to be more combat-ready than in years past. Its coverage and tackling are vastly improved, and while the Trojans’ pass rush isn’t as formidable as the conference powers, it’s effective enough to be disruptive. The determining factor will be whether the Trojans can establish any semblance of a run game against Oregon’s front seven. USC’s run blocking is undeniably its weakest point, and if there’s no threat of the run, the Ducks are more than capable of shutting down a one-dimensional attack, even if it’s fueled by talent like Jayden Maiava and Makai Lemon.

The Trojans were able to do it against No. 18 Michigan, racking up 224 ground yards against a defense allowing the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game. If they can replicate that success and the defense can force Oregon quarterback Dante Moore to beat them with his arm, USC could steal the future Oregon imagined for itself when the season opened.

Pitt at No. 16 Georgia Tech

7 p.m. ET on ESPN

The ACC is in abject chaos at the moment, with six teams still in the hunt for the conference championship game. No. 16 Georgia Tech can bring some semblance of order to things with a win over Pitt, which would lock the Yellow Jackets into the ACC Championship Game as the first-place team and effectively eliminate Pitt from contention.

If the Panthers conjure an upset as 2.5-point road underdogs, the ifs, ands and ors get even more complex than they already are.

More than anything, this game should help clarify whether Georgia Tech is a quality team that let its foot off the gas the last two weeks against NC State and Boston College, or an average team that overperformed early and has regressed back to the mean. The Yellow Jackets’ big win against Clemson, then ranked No. 12, has been diminished by Clemson’s collapse. The rest of their schedule lacks any authoritative wins over quality opponents.

Pitt is far from a national title contender, but if the last couple weeks have truly been Georgia Tech’s top gear, the Panthers have more than enough to come away with a win. Even after getting run over by Notre Dame, they still boast a top-10 run defense to counter the Yellow Jackets’ primary mode of attack. Their passing offense, ranked 16th, can exploit Georgia Tech’s porous secondary. Plus, they should have no trouble running the ball since GT allows more than 160 yards per game on the ground.

The ACC is a mess and will struggle to get more than one team into the playoff, but at least this game will illuminate whether the conference has a standout contender or not.

No. 11 BYU at Cincinnati

8 p.m. ET on FOX

The Big 12 title game is still up for grabs, though No. 5 Texas Tech and No. 11 BYU are the only teams that require no help to reach it. The Red Raiders are on bye this week, and a win over scuffling West Virginia next week would secure their slot. The Cougars’ path includes this clash with Cincinnati.

The Bearcats’ surprise loss to Arizona was a massive blow to their Big 12 title chances, but downing BYU would keep them in the hunt. They’d require the right teams to lose in the final two weeks, but the door remains open, as does a path to the College Football Playoff.

But the Cougars may kill that dream on the vine. BYU has a top-25 rushing attack, running for nearly 200 yards per game this season. The passing attack is less robust, but the Bearcats’ defense is ranked 87th against the run and 88th against the pass, meaning the Cougs have more than enough firepower to do damage.

The Bearcats can run the ball just as well, but BYU is allowing just 17.8 points a game. The Cougars’ run defense is certainly the weakest part of the armor, but it is considerably better than Cincinnati’s and the best the Bearcats’ three-headed attack of Tawee Walker, Evan Pryor (if healthy), and quarterback Brendan Sorsby has faced. The fact that Cincinnati is at home is part of what is keeping the spread tight, but the personnel matchup favors the Cougars.

Wild-card picks

Every week, our pickers select another bet of their choosing that isn’t limited to the games listed above.

Matt Baker: Arizona -6.5 vs. Baylor

Mark Cooper: UNLV -3 vs. Hawaii

Seth Emerson: Vanderbilt -9.5 vs. Kentucky

Sam Khan Jr.: Arizona -6.5 vs. Baylor

Austin Mock: Maryland +14 vs. Michigan

Dan Santaromita: Duke -7 at North Carolina

Daniel Shirley: Mercer +31.5 at Auburn

David Ubben: Tulane at Temple over 55.5

Chris Vannini: Pitt at Georgia Tech over 61.5

Picks standings